It’s that time again. The shops are stocked up with car flags and bunting, sweepstake kits are being passed around offices and the tabloids are raking up as much muck as they can about the England squad. Yes, the World Cup is on the horizon and Gareth Southgate is poised to lead the Three Lions in Russia.
But, before you stick on World in Motion, reach for the face paint and squeeze into your overpriced replica shirt, should we really be getting excited about England’s chances in this tournament? Is it worth a patriotic punt with the bookies on an open top bus parade for Harry Kane and the team?
In Southgate, England perhaps have a manager befitting their modest ambitions. The former Middlesbrough boss is no stranger to international heartache, having missed a penalty in Euro 96, and only stood into the role after Sam Allardyce blew his big chance. Somewhat sensibly, he’s spent a bit of time tempering expectations, even when some of his squad have excitedly declared that ‘this could be our year’.
In the build-up to Nigeria friendly at Wembley, he remarked: “We have had teams with far more caps, far more experience of winning major trophies than this team. We have to be realistic on how much weight of expectation we put on them.
“There has to be a reality. We are ranked 14th in the world. We didn’t get out of our group in the last World Cup. We didn’t beat Iceland in the last European Championship. The last 18 months has been rebuilding confidence and the bond between supporters.”
It might not be a tubthumping call to arms but it’s probably a sensible message. England have, after all, only won two knockout World Cup games – against Denmark and Ecuador – since the iconic penalty shootout defeat to West Germany in the 1990 semi-final. While Leroy Sane, Mauro Icardi and Karim Benzema were left out of their respective squads, Phil Jones, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Danny Welbeck all made the plane for England (with the greatest respect to that trio).
While England might be seventh favourites to win the World Cup with some bookies, the likes of Brazil, Germany, Spain and France are a long way ahead when it comes to the talent boarding the plane to Russia.
Expectations might well rise before kick-off but it does appear that supporters have heeded Southgate’s warnings. A poll of Sun readers as England secured qualification suggested just 10 per cent of England fans think their team can bring the trophy home in July.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. While winning the tournament outright might be an ambitious bet. It shows that Southgate’s men are odds-on favourites to win their opening two games. They should have enough talent in the squad to overcome Tunisia and Panama and, if they do, that might well be enough to take them to the knockout stages regardless of what happens against Belgium’s famed ‘golden generation’.
While it’s easy to knock and mock, the likes of Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane and Dele Alli have shown themselves to be skilful matchwinners in the Premier League and the team’s record in qualifying matches has been impressive even if there have been very few sparkling displays that have lived long in the memory.
Getting through the group stages would be an improvement on 2014 at least and would ensure a game against someone from an unpredictable Group H. Any of Poland, Senegal, Colombia and Japan could be a tough opponent, but it could be within England’s capabilities to overcome any of them.
If England could come through this stage – and given past form that’s a big if – then it’s likely that a quarter-final with either Brazil or Germany would await and either match would more than likely mark the end of the dream (just pray it’s not penalties again). But, a quarter-final appearance would certainly be an achievement and probably worth a punt if you’re that way inclined.
So, are you allowed to get excited now? Well, maybe a little bit. But don’t get too carried away. And don’t expect the car flags to stay on beyond July 8.